Category: Notes

We’re Here

The project took nearly a year, not including the earlier months of consideration and decision-making. We uprooted ourselves and moved to Iowa, arriving at our daughter’s home here on April 5 and moving into our new home a few days later when the movers caught up to us. The three-day drive was not as exhausting as I feared. Perhaps in comparison to eight months of sorting and packing it just didn’t seem so bad.

After another month plus of unpacking and arranging (it’s still not done), I’m beginning to find some time to relax. We’ve met the neighbors, volunteered for an HOA committee, and, last night, I attended my first Democratic Party Meeting in Iowa. We’ve arrived.

A surprise farewell from a Flagstaff friend. Due to age, and the reasons that brought us here, we won’t be as active in our new community. But that doesn’t mean we won’t love it as much. This is just another season of our lives.

The Hospital Is Moving. Now What?

On June 6, the Flagstaff City Council approved all ordinances necessary for Northern Arizona Healthcare to move its Flagstaff Medical Center to a new “health and wellness village” on the south end of town. These included zoning changes and approval of a Development Agreement for Phase One of the work, including the new hospital and separate ambulatory care center (outpatient services).

In May, I wrote about some questions regarding the NAH plan. Not all those questions are resolved, but I accept the Council’s decision. Public participation- at the Planning and Zoning Commission hearings, City Council meetings, and in communications with City Council members- improved the project by obtaining additional concessions from NAH for road improvements, climate action elements, and more. Among the concessions was NAH’s agreement to begin public participation in the planning for repurposing the old hospital campus this October rather than postponing that effort closer to the expected move date three years out.

It is important for our Flagstaff community to take advantage of this latter concession and get to work now researching the best uses of the old campus and planning an advocacy campaign. Let’s not be caught flat-footed when NAH pops a development plan that isn’t what the community wants or needs.

There are some who are eager to overturn the City Council’s decision about the hospital move by voter referendum. While I think NAH has overpromised about the impact this new hospital will have on the specialized care it will be able to make available because of the move, its sales job was persuasive to some Council Members, and will likely carry the day at the ballot box if a referendum occurs. Arguments about traffic, urban sprawl, and commitment to climate goals pale in comparison to promises that patients won’t need to be transported far from home for medical care. Meanwhile, much work needs to be done to make sure that the old campus doesn’t stand as an empty shell or turn into something less than what the community deserves. I hope the community puts its energy onto that project.

Flagstaff Hospital Move?

The shortage of buildable land in and around Flagstaff has caught up to the needs of the community, bringing a tough decision before Flagstaff City Council. I’m no expert on the details but I do know a tough call when I see one, and I’ve been through several similar choices with clients over the years. Here’s what I wrote to Flagstaff Mayor and Council:

To: Mayor and Council

From: Ann Heitland

Re: Northern Arizona Healthcare Development Plan

Date: May 12, 2023

I have lived in the Greater Flagstaff area for 28 years and my family has had numerous experiences with medical treatment at Flagstaff Medical Center. For the most part, all of these have been positive. In addition, my wife delivered babies at FMC from 1995-2002. She then was Chief Midwife at Tuba City Regional Healthcare for 5 years, from where patients were transported to FMC as needed. We are excited by Northern Arizona Healthcare’s proposal to build a new, state-of-the-art facility to serve the northern region of our state during the next decades.

I attended the May 2 Public Hearing and subsequently read the following documents:

  1. Staff Information Memo (Tiffany Antol, Zoning Code Manager) re: Resolution No. 2023-20 and Ordinance 2023-12
  2. Staff Information Memo (Tiffany Antol, Zoning Code Manager) re: Ordinance 2023-11
  3. NAH’s Combined Application for Concept Zoning Map Amendment and Specific Plan
  4. The proposed Ordinance and Resolution
  5. The Police Impact Analysis
  6. Wildfire Fire Risk Assessment and Mitigation
  7. Fire Impact Assessment
  8. Three Standards of Cover Analysis
  9. FUSD Letter
  10. Economic Impact Analysis
  11. Draft Development Agreement (as attached to Staff’s May 2 Memo to Council)
  12. Relevant portions of the Flagstaff Regional Plan
  13. The Flagstaff Carbon Neutrality Plan
  14. The Project Narrative for the Canyon del Rio Zoning Map Amendment
  15. The Timber Sky Concept Zoning Plan Project Narrative
  16. Some of the written public comments submitted regarding the NAH Application

We appreciate all the work that City Staff has put into the NAH development project over many months. The work has certainly advanced us toward the goal of a new, wonderful health center. What strikes me, nonetheless, is that this project is vastly more significant than anything presented to the city in decades, if ever, and – while it has been handled well so far – our community deserves more attention to some of the important details before approval is granted. This was the conclusion of the Commission charged with responsibility for reviewing and recommending development and zoning projects. We hope it will be the conclusion of Council as well, and that Council will give specific direction for further staff work and negotiations with NAH.

The following are some specific thoughts and concerns. These are not exhaustive of all possible issues. I’ve grouped my comments into six bold-faced topics:

The Development Agreement Should Be Considered and Approved Simultaneously with the Concept Plan and Zoning Changes – After Adequate Review Time and Public Hearing

This was done with the Canyon del Rio Development, see Agenda June 4, 2019, items 14 A-C, and the Timber Sky Development, see Agenda November 15, 2016, item 14.

In the case before you now, the Applicant (NAH) and City Staff chose to notice the combined public hearing for the Rezoning and the Concept Plan before the notice of public hearing on the Development Agreement. The consequence of this schedule was to prevent the Public from seeing how the Development Agreement embodied promises that NAH made as part of their presentation on the Rezoning and the Concept Plan and from commenting on the sufficiency of the Development Agreement.

In Staff’s presentation on May 2, Staff recommended that if City Council approved the Specific Plan, the approval be conditioned upon full compliance with the terms of a Development Agreement. (Staff PowerPoint, 5/2/23.)  Yet, it is impossible for Council or the Public to evaluate that condition on the approval without adequate time to review and ask questions about the Development Agreement. (The staff schedule as laid out in the Amended Agenda for May 16 doesn’t sufficiently solve this problem.)

The Public Interest Demands a Thorough Assessment of the Development’s Impact on the Future of the Ft. Tuthill County Park

Rezoning must consider the impact on surrounding properties. (Finding #3) Just as a regional hospital serves a vast population beyond the City of Flagstaff, Ft. Tuthill County Park is a vital asset to our region.

I found it alarming that NAH executives had waited for five months to respond to our County Supervisors’ request for information, and that there had been no meaningful meetings between County representatives, NAH, and City Staff. (According to testimony by County Supervisors at the May 2 Public Hearing.)

The public interest in the future of Ft. Tuthill may require commitments in the Development Agreement and modifications to the proposed zoning map. Currently, we simply don’t know. In my opinion, Council cannot make Finding #3 without resolution of the County’s concerns related to this valuable adjacent property.[1]

The Public Interest Demands a Thorough Transportation Study Before Approval

The Staff Memo re: Ordinance 2023-11 states:

Accessible and convenient transportation to the new Hospital remains an unaddressed service.

As of the writing of this report, Mountain Line is not able to provide transit to the Property without additional financial resources. In the interim NAH has committed to providing 20-minute shuttle. Concerns remain for how underserved members of our community will access the Hospital, and how the relocation may affect greenhouse gas emissions from transportation service.

The present, central location of FMC provides the best opportunity for underserved members of our community to quickly reach the hospital and its surrounding medical offices and labs. Moving these services to the outskirts of town may have a significant impact on residents who already struggle with daily, essential tasks. Placing barriers in their way of accessing healthcare is problematic. A stronger effort to mitigate these barriers than NAH has so far made is required to achieve the public interest finding. (Finding #2)

Supervisor Vasquez’s testimony at the May 2 public hearing exacerbated my concerns about the present lack of information. I wondered if the Arizona Department of Transportation had been involved in planning or if consultation with them or other experts had been accomplished.

“Staff requested that NAH develop a Transportation Demand Management (TDM) plan or strategy for their project,” according to the same Staff Memo cited earlier. But staff seems to believe the City cannot compel NAH to do so and so far NAH has not. If not paid for by NAH, perhaps the City should pay for it. Without it, the evidence before you suggests this project will jeopardize the Ft. Tuthill property and may endanger patients being transported to the hospital during major events at Ft. Tuthill when traffic on I-17 and the exit ramp is backed up.  These factors should prevent you from making Findings #2 and #3 without further information. At the present time there are too many unanswered questions about the transportation impact of this project to proceed.

In the Draft Development Agreement NAH also promises “(a) continuation of NAH’s current program of providing point-to-point shuttle service for low-income persons and/or persons with mobility needs from the regional hospital to Flagstaff Shelter Services facilities and other locations at no cost to riders; (b) continuation of NAH’s current program of coordinating shuttle service for low-income persons and/or persons with mobility needs through private providers at no cost to riders.”  (Draft Agreement, 5/2/2023, Section 4.5.) However, the Draft Development Agreement also provides that NAH may entirely discontinue the private shuttle service if it reaches an agreement with Mountain Line. Id. Therefore, low-income and mobility challenged people may end up with less convenient service than they presently have. As part of the public comment process, the Taylor House wrote a letter asking NAH if their current shuttle service would be continued. The Development Agreement needs to better protect the vulnerable in our community than the current draft does.

The City’s Commitment to Carbon Neutrality as Incorporated in the Regional Plan Needs More Attention Than the Current Concept Plan and Development Agreement Provide

One of the items that stood out for me as I reviewed the two Staff Memos were these statements:

Policy Impacts:

There are no anticipated policy impacts affiliated with the proposed Specific Plan.

(Staff Memo re Resolution No. 2023-20 and Ordinance 2023-12.)

Policy Impacts:

There are no anticipated policy impacts affiliated with the proposed Concept Zoning Map Amendment.

(Staff Memo re re: Ordinance 2023-11.)

This is certainly the largest development that the City has considered since adoption of the Carbon Neutrality Plan and its associated December 2021 amendments to the Regional Plan 2030. How the City handles the application of those statements of policies and goals to this development will be precedent for future developments, so it seems to me that there are huge policy implications to be considered.

One thing I have learned in my political work over the last six years is the importance of government explaining its decisions in ways that are consistent with promises made in other contexts. Our youth are rightly cynical of government actors who make promises to address the most critical issue in their lives – the Climate Crisis – and then conduct business as usual without regard to the reality of that crisis. Yes, our community needs and deserves a state-of-the-art hospital in the coming decades but not at the cost of compromising our commitment to address the most critical healthcare issue – the Climate Crisis. We can have both if we stand by our principles. If we don’t, we face another crisis: The cynicism of our youth which threatens the very existence of democracy as we know it.

You have received numerous comments from people and organizations that are more familiar with construction methods, materials, and sustainability than I am.  Still, I can even spot unanswered questions related to NAH’s commitment to sustainability in the proposed development.

Will the shuttle service provided by NAH use electric vehicles? If not, how will that additional carbon impact be offset?

NAH offers to provide shuttle service to the nearest Mountain Line stop at a cost of $250,000 per year until Mountain Line can extend a line. If NAH is willing to commit $250,000 per year to a shuttle service, is that enough to fully equip and staff an electric vehicle shuttle service?

In spite of the multi-million-dollar cost of extending the line, I have been told that Mountain Line asked for only $800,000 to cover the cost of extending the line until Mountain Line could find permanent funding. Extending the line from the beginning will more likely encourage its use than requiring passengers to transfer from the shuttle to the bus. Council should press NAH on why it resists the $800,000 contribution in lieu of running it’s own $250,000 per year shuttle, which could go on long enough to eclipse the $800,000 expense.

NAH represented in its PowerPoint and testimony at the May 2 meeting that the new hospital and ambulatory care center would meet LEED Gold Certification. Why not Platinum? The hospital may be unable to obtain Platinum Certification because of the need for natural gas backup, but why not for the ambulatory care center – and other future buildings? What is lacking and why?

Obtaining LEED certification would cost about $50,000 where we are talking about a $1.1 billion project.  Even if the certificate costs twice that, isn’t it worth it for third-party verification of something this important?  Using as an excuse that $50,000-$100,000 will be used to invest in healthcare delivery instead, as NAH did at the May 2 hearing, is unconvincing. I think a requirement of LEED certification is reasonable.

NAH made a commitment in its PowerPoint presentation and the draft Development Agreement (4.4.3) to install solar panels on the garage by 2030.  This is good but why not at occupancy? Beyond the parking garage, there should be a commitment to install solar panels on the other structures (which NAH says in its PowerPoint are being built to tolerate the weight). Let’s install solar panels on the ambulatory care center by 2031 and on the hospital roof by 2032.  And another date for panel installation in the open parking areas as we have at City Hall.

NAH has also committed to enter a contract with APS to purchase clean energy. This must be in the Development Agreement with the requirement being to purchase 100% clean energy.

NAH proposes a minimal number of EV Charging Stations – 20 – among over 2300 parking spaces. More are needed at the outset with a commitment to add additional spaces in future years.

The May 2 Staff Presentation asserted:

  • Certain amendments to the Regional Plan in December 2021 incorporated the City’s carbon neutrality goals.
  • These amendments represent community goals and do not require that any specific project be carbon neutral.

How do we meet community goals if we do not scrutinize all projects and especially projects of this magnitude?  There are, in fact, requirements in the Regional Plan that impact the Council’s review of NAH’s Application:

Policy E&C 2.4: Promote developments that help the community achieve carbon neutrality through strategies that reduce the project’s emissions from transportation, energy, and consumption.

Policy E&C 3.6: Commit to equitably distribute the burdens and benefits of climate action policies and investments to all segments of the community.

The Council is required to consider whether this 175-acre, approximately one-million square foot development “helps the community achieve carbon neutrality” and “equitably distributes the burdens and benefits of climate action policies to all segments of the community.” Without a serious inquiry regarding this project’s impact on the community’s ability to achieve carbon neutrality in a way that equitably distributes the burden of doing so, Council cannot make Findings #1 and #2.   I submit that the Council – like the Planning and Zoning Commission – presently does not have enough information to fulfill this obligation.

A few examples of questions I don’t think you can answer: NAH asserts that the new hospital will use 45% less energy than the current hospital. Does that reduction come anywhere close to offsetting the “53,190 new daily trips” that will be added to this location on the city’s outskirts? What about the emissions arising from construction? How are they offset?  If the old hospital is repurposed, how much will the energy inefficiencies there continue; thus, cancelling the value of the 45% lower consumption in the new location?

The Council has an obligation to find that this project is overall in the public interest (Finding #2) and in compliance with the Regional Plan (Finding #3). Without a more complete Application, you cannot do so. The hospital will argue that it has done more than other projects to provide information. (I’m not sure that is true, looking at Canyon del Rio and Timber Sky.)[2] The answer to that is that this project is larger and more impactful than any other project in recent decades.

NAH has so far failed to provide sufficient information for the Council to evaluate the climate action goals that were incorporated into the Regional Plan.

Infrastructure Improvements

NAH’s May 2 PowerPoint Presentation says it has committed $45 million to infrastructure improvements. It is my understanding that Council knows that at least a substantial portion of this $45 million is intended to be covered by a U.S. Department of Transportation RAISE grant that City Staff helped NAH apply for. The success of the grant application will not be known until the end of June. The RAICES grant is a large contingency, and it seems worth waiting for that commitment before approving anything with respect to this project. 

The Economic and Social Analysis Seems Incomplete

The Economic Impact Analysis (EIA) performed for NAH and submitted in support of its combined Application concedes that hundreds of the jobs located at the new site are merely being transferred from their current location at the “Legacy Campus” and “no new employment” is associated with the “ambulatory and surgical facilities, medical office and hospital.” (EIA, p. 9.) By 2045, at full buildout of the hospital, “there could be 569 new jobs.” Ibid.

The EIA, however, argues that in 2030 a category labeled “Clinical Partners” will generate 710 new jobs and over $77 million in direct new economic impact and over $134 million of indirect impact. (Figure 5, p. 10 of EIA.)  Outside of the assertions in the tables, the only mention of “Clinical Partners” in the EIA is on p. 1 where it is said that 160,000 square feet of office space will be built for “Clinical Partners;” Figure 2 indicates construction is to be complete by 2029. But how are these Clinical Partners to be enlisted? Will their move to this new space mean that buildings in other parts of town, now surrounding the “Legacy Campus” will become vacant? The EIA fails to address this impact on the economic well-being of our community and whether or not we are simply trading jobs north of I-40 for jobs south of I-40.

The Development Agreement proposes a “Visioning Process” for the “Legacy Campus.”  In NAH’s vision, this process would not begin until January 2024, well after the NAH desired approval of its development application. And, NAH may opt out of the visioning process and proceed with development of all the “Legacy Campus” properties as high-density housing. (High-density housing seems like the right use for most of the old buildings but it would be nice to maintain some of the West Campus as a physical therapy center serving those on the northside of the city, as it does now. From personal experience, I can say that having the NAH physical therapy office in Doney Park five minutes from our home made post-surgical and other PT much easier and I would hope that the thousands of residents in the vicinity of the “Legacy Campus” would not lose that benefit.)

The point here is that without knowing what will happen to the “Legacy Campus” and surrounding “Clinical Partners” and labs, we do not have a realistic picture of the economic and social impact of this move.

We have heard many comments during public hearings from supporters of the move who are eager to avoid traveling to the Phoenix area for healthcare. I fear that NAH has set up unrealistic expectations about how much that will change. Adding 35 physical beds is not the same as adding 35 available beds – that requires professional staffing while the nation is suffering from a long-term physician and nursing shortage. NAH already employs “travelers” to cover their physician, nursing, pharmacy, and para-professional needs; building this proposed facility won’t change that. Building more workforce housing might. How economically viable is it to create further demand for “travelers?”

Furthermore, there are some medical needs that will never be treated in a regional hospital with no medical school. Highly specialized physicians who treat relatively rare illnesses are located in large urban centers because large populations provide the patient base they need to support their practices. There will always be transports to Phoenix, Las Vegas, or even Albuquerque for patients in need of such treatment. Therefore, the Council should carefully consider how much weight it gives to this justification for the NAH project.

Conclusion

The existing hospital is unsuitable for the coming decades. The question for Council is whether the current NAH Application serves the public interest (Finding #2) without jeopardy to other community values and goals (Finding #1) and nearby properties (Finding #3) – or is there a better way to approach this development which will come at the cost of some delay for more information gathering, better analysis, and community involvement? Based on the information presented to you so far, I do not believe that Council can make any of the required findings.

At the very least, the schedule should be reset to (1) allow public hearing and Council decision-making simultaneously on the Concept Plan, Zoning Map Change, and the Development Agreement (as has been done with other projects), and (2) await the announcement of RAISE grant upon which $45 million of the infrastructure development commitment from NAH depends. This would be an approximately one-month delay. Even more time should be required to answer questions raised in the public hearing process about transportation, safety, Ft. Tuthill, and climate action, and to begin the visioning process for the “Legacy Campus.”

Thank you for your attention. You have a tough job and I appreciate your work.

Notes:

[1] According to Staff’s presentation at the May 2 meeting, Council must make three findings. The third one, per the Staff PowerPoint, says: “The site must be determined to be physically suitable in terms of design, location, shape, size, and operating characteristics; and the provision of public and emergency vehicle access, public services, and utilities to ensure that the requested zone designation and the proposed or anticipated uses and/or development will not endanger, jeopardize, or otherwise constitute a hazard to the property or improvements in the

vicinity in which the property is located.” (Emphasis added.)

[2] Incidentally, looking at Canyon del Rio’s Application and Development Agreement, one can see that they provided much more infrastructure than $130,000 for a bus stop as NAH’s attorney suggested was the case on May 2. That’s just one instance where the slick PowerPoint of May 2 may have been misleading to Council.

Minimum Wage

As we enter another debate about $15/hour, it’s worth preserving this article. And, worth noting that the initial increase in the Biden proposal would still be below $10 per hour. Try living on that.

So often liberals give short-shrift to anything from the Economics Department of my alma mater. That’s hurtful because my experience there — perhaps colored by the naiveté of an undergraduate — was that economics was a science engaged in the search for best answers, no matter where the data led. This conclusion about the minimum wage, written by a University of Chicago star-economist, is consistent with that.

“There are cases which cannot be overdone by language, and this is one.”

During Revolutionary War, Thomas Paine wrote The American Crisis, a series of pamphlets, the first of which was published on December 23, 1776. It’s a lengthy piece by today’s standards, detailing the trials of the early battles of the War and Paine’s thoughts on the Tories (the loyalists to King George).

I was reminded of Paine’s essay this week. Nancy Pelosi alluded to it on Tuesday, “the times have found us,” she said, citing Paine. Yesterday, David Rothkopf, author and commentator, tweeted:

“We need to stop a moment and recognize the stakes, the grievous nature of Trump, McConnell & Barr’s crimes, the preciousness of the institutions and values they are defiling, and the unspeakable damage to America and the world that would be caused were justice not to be done.”

Rothkopf’s initial tweet was followed by a substantial thread, all of which is worth reading.

But for me, Paine’s 18th Century language says it best. I’ve excerpted from his full essay, which then General George Washington thought to be so inspiring that he ordered it to be read to the troops at Valley Forge:

THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. …

…I turn with the warm ardor of a friend to those who have nobly stood, and are yet determined to stand the matter out: I call not upon a few, but upon all: not on this state or that state, but on every state: up and help us; lay your shoulders to the wheel; better have too much force than too little, when so great an object is at stake. Let it be told to the future world, that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive, that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet and to repulse it. … It matters not where you live, or what rank of life you hold, the evil or the blessing will reach you all. The far and the near, the home counties and the back, the rich and the poor, will suffer or rejoice alike. The heart that feels not now is dead; the blood of his children will curse his cowardice, who shrinks back at a time when a little might have saved the whole, and made them happy. I love the man that can smile in trouble, that can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. ‘Tis the business of little minds to shrink; but he whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves his conduct, will pursue his principles unto death. … if a thief breaks into my house, burns and destroys my property, and kills or threatens to kill me, or those that are in it, and to “bind me in all cases whatsoever” to his absolute will, am I to suffer it? …Let them call me rebel and welcome, I feel no concern from it; but I should suffer the misery of devils, were I to make a whore of my soul by swearing allegiance to one whose character is that of a sottish, stupid, stubborn, worthless, brutish man. …

There are cases which cannot be overdone by language, and this is one. There are persons, too, who see not the full extent of the evil which threatens them; they solace themselves with hopes that the enemy, if he succeed, will be merciful. It is the madness of folly, to expect mercy from those who have refused to do justice; and even mercy, where conquest is the object, is only a trick of war….. men must be either rogues or fools that will not see it. I dwell not upon the vapors of imagination; I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as A, B, C, hold up truth to your eyes.

…By perseverance and fortitude we have the prospect of a glorious issue; by cowardice and submission, the sad choice of a variety of evils …. Look on this picture and weep over it! and if there yet remains one thoughtless wretch who believes it not, let him suffer it unlamented.

Thomas Paine, The Crisis, December 23, 1776.

Paine’s essays appear on a website owned by the Independence Hall Association, a nonprofit organization in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, founded in 1942. Copyright © 1999-2019 by the Independence Hall Association. Publishing electronically as ushistory.org. On the Internet since July 4, 1995.

Arizona Voter Crisis?

I attended a conference sponsored by the Arizona Clean Elections Commission and the Morrison Institute of Arizona State University on November 19, 2018, entitled Arizona’s Voter Crisis. Cronkite news reported on the event here, which was picked up by Flagstaff’s newspaper and published November 21 here.  Perhaps it’s hard to understand the concern about a “voter crisis,” much less an entire conference devoted to the topic, especially after a midterm election with record turnout. Frankly, it’s harder for me to tolerate “experts” bewailing a crisis without a serious plan to address it — or even a plan to get to a plan. It’s like sending “thoughts and prayers” after a mass shooting. Nice, but get your expressions of sympathy ready because more mass shootings are surely coming down the pike if that’s all we can muster. 

Activists and voters should pat themselves on the back about this past election. Several Arizona counties set new records, including our own, Coconino County, with 67.2% of registered voters voting. The State voter turnout clocked over the finish line at 64.85%. Sounds pretty good until one realizes that half of the adults over age 18 are not registered. That brings us down to a one-third voter-engagement rate. Furthermore, we’ve seen turnout at these levels in the past — notably 1982 — only to have voters back away from civic engagement in subsequent elections. 

This state of affairs is only a crisis, of course, if one considers voting participation important.  I do. We call ourselves a democracy after all. Furthermore, while some see political competition as a dirty business that breeds discord, I see it as a means to resolve our differences in a (relatively) peaceful manner. If too many people lose confidence in our political system as a means to resolve differences in how to govern ourselves, the alternative becomes warfare.  So, let’s proceed with the notion that increased eligible voter participation is desirable. (I’ll come back to this later.)

Random Notes

I want to share some notes I took at the conference of comments by the academics and other luminaries on panels and podiums.  These don’t have much to do with the topic of the conference, but they are interesting observations on the 2018 Election.

  • Campaigns matter. When margins are this close, outcomes are determined by thoughtful voters.
  • The rural/urban split in Arizona was more evident in this election than ever before.
  • Women were the wave.
  • The top-level ticket-splitting was surprising (in its magnitude)
  • People were very engaged over Prop 305 because people love their school districts. People move for good school districts and this has implications for the legislative district maps which Republicans in the legislature should pay attention to as they go forward with school funding issues. Some “safe” Republican districts with good schools aren’t going to be so safe for Republicans anymore if they keep up what they have been doing.
  • Republicans turn in ballots early; Democrats turn them in later.
  • Millennials increased their turnout substantially
  • Turnout was not surprising given the amount of money spent on turnout — text messaging and social media ads played a big role
  • The mayoral race in Phoenix may have bumped turnout in Maricopa County
  • Latinxs like to hold onto their ballots — thanks to Maricopa County for the extra days for “emergency” voting
  • Hobbs and Hoffman won in the face of overwhelming expenditures for their opponents due to unprecedented groundwork and social media campaigning
  • Typically,  the big money in Arizona midterms is for ballot propositions. This time candidate campaigns may have overshadowed the ballot propositions. [Author note: Because statewide Democratic candidates actually had a chance this time!]
  • Prop 305 was a true grassroots movement. [This came up several times — the pros seemed a bit stunned by this.]
  • The biggest complaint coming into the Secretary of State’s office about disenfranchisement is from voters who moved and didn’t check the box to change their voter registration address when they changed their address with the Department of Motor Vehicles. They show up at the polls and find they are not registered — or realize it after the voter registration deadline. [This is a simple administrative fix, which Katie Hobbs is committed to doing.]
  • Nationally, there was a big surge in Independents turning out — larger than the surge of either Rs or Ds. In 2008-2015, Independents voted for disruption. In 2018, they said this is enough disruption. 
  • “We live in Newt Gingrich’s world. Policy is impossible, politicians’ decisions are all about retaining power.”
  • “Emotion drives turnout.”
  • “Polarization makes me sad.”

Was there a blue wave?

Panelists in the afternoon were asked “Was there a Blue Wave?” Responses:

  • A journalist from the Weekly Standard: “I can’t see anything other than a negative vote on Trump.”  Democrats didn’t gain as much power as “some” would require to call it a wave election [ever hear of gerrymandering?]; “but it’s clear there was an opinion wave.”
  • Washington Post reporter: “Definitely, it was not a red wave.”
  • Independent Voter expert: “It was a wave of women making a difference.”
  • ASU Dean: “‘Wave’ implies a seismic shift. This may be a particular reaction — a desire to impose a check — rather than a ‘wave.'”

Can We Please Address the Crisis?

Like so many academic conferences, the bulk of the time was spent defining the crisis with very little time spent on practical solutions. Worse, the conference leaders seemed determined to obscure an important point from their own data in order to avoid controversial solutions. By controversial, I mean here solutions Republicans in the Arizona Legislature won’t like.

In July, the Morrison Institute, with funding from the Clean Elections Commission, issued a report on the crisis and traveled about the state presenting its findings.  You can read the full report, as slightly revised post-November 6, here. The July report inspired another publication, which was designed to address the sub-crisis of low turnout in primary elections. This report, entitled Arizona Primary Elections: Primarily Forgotten, is worth the read and can be found here.

What’s the Morrison Institute’s final conclusion for addressing Arizona’s Voter Crisis? “Education is the key.” (July Report, p. 24) My reaction: Really?

The ASU/Morrison Institute folks ignored one striking bit of original research based on their poll of Arizona voters, likely because it didn’t fit comfortably with the thesis they began with, which is that if only Arizona non-voters had access to more civics education, more of them would vote. But the key bit of information that belies that thesis is that 28% of those who say they didn’t vote in the 2016 General Election gave as their primary reason “No time/too busy.” (Table 7, p. 22 of the July Report.) If people say they are too busy to vote, surely they are too busy to receive further information via civics classes?

When asked about improving access to voting by such means as opening the polls on the weekend before Election Day, same-day voter registration, and declaring Election Day a holiday, one panelist remarked that “it’s already so easy to vote in Arizona that those actions are unlikely to increase participation.”  Another panelist, Garret Archer, did concede that allowing automatic voter registration updates through the Motor Vehicles Department when registered voters move would help. Another panelist Neil Giuliano, president and CEO of Greater Phoenix Leadership, said: “Being politically realistic, voter registration reform issues don’t happen very often in red states.” (Cronkite News)

But Arizona is no longer a red state. With Democrats sweeping four statewide races and holding a majority of the nine Congressional seats, Arizona is at least purple. The more voter participation we have, the bluer we’ll get. Which is why Republicans resist voting reforms while giving lip service to improving voter engagement. That was the elephant in the room at this conference and it’s an issue that needs to be brought out of the closet in future elections. We don’t control the legislature yet, but one way to remain in that condition is to be shy about solving real problems.

Imagine campaigns confronting people who say they don’t have time to vote by laying the blame where it belongs? Would you vote if you could on the Sunday before Election Day? Would you like to vote now if you could walk into the polls on Tuesday even though you forgot to register a month ago? How would you like Election Day to be a holiday? “I’m in favor of all those reforms,” the candidate would say. “My opponent is not. If that makes you mad, go out of your way on Tuesday and vote to fix it by electing me.”

In Coconino County, our local Democratic Party tried a variety of things to make voting easier. Before the primary, we talked to voters about what the primary means and let them know that Independents could vote in Arizona primary elections and were welcome to vote in the Democratic Primary. We offered a colorful brochure highlighting candidates running as Democrats and our values. After the primary, we continued the effort begun in 2017 to find and register new voters. We did an unprecedented outreach effort to Navajo voters. We told voters about early voting — by mail and in person. We publicized Vote Centers and their advantages. We publicized childcare and ride-to-the-poll options.  We created a sample ballot which voters were excited to receive. We incorporated all of these things into our canvassing efforts so that we were not simply surveying for candidates but making voting easier. We sponsored events on issues that mattered to voters and endorsed propositions, explaining why we were for things that mattered to voters. The result — record turnout in the county, not only in the percentage of registered voters who voted but also in the number of people who voted.

The ASU Dean noted that emotion drives turnout. Indeed, if voters see a connection between voting and their daily lives, they care and they vote. Thus, healthcare was a driving force in the 2018 Election. Education funding drove teachers and parents to the polls. Gun violence drove Millennials to the polls — in record numbers. The panelists at this event discounted these issues, seeing turnout as higher merely in reaction to a vague sense of “discord and turmoil” in our nation or — to the extent they dared mention him — reaction to Trump. One panelist asked if anyone in the room thought that voter turnout had anything to do with a message put out by the Democrats as opposed to the disruption created by Trump and challenged anyone to say what that message was — obviously expecting silence. Several shouted out “healthcare,” but that didn’t fit with the theme of the day — which was that voters are uneducated. On the contrary, I think adults are plenty educated about the issues that matter in their daily lives. It’s just hard to get to the polls for many of them. We can fix that.

Orwell Warned Us About This

Outraged by Helsinki? Please be equally outraged by what has happened this weekend with the Carter Page FISA warrants. And spread the word.

Here’s the threat: “If you repeat a falsehood enough times, many people will believe it. Especially if you have 53.2 million Twitter followers, the bully pulpit of the presidency and some media outlets that uncritically repeat your false claims.” WAPO 202  And, if you control the timing of the release of important information, people will miss its significance.

The government chose this last Saturday afternoon as the moment to release 412 pages of Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrants related to FBI surveillance of Carter Page, a Trump campaign operative who was under suspicion by the FBI of being engaged in “clandestine intelligence activities” on behalf of Russia. After the Saturday release, Trump then spent Sunday and much of this morning tweeting falsehoods about the information. Congressional Republicans are also tweeting and releasing statements condemning the redactions in the released warrants.

(The FISA documents were released pursuant to Freedom of Information Act requests filed by media outlets as early as April 2017.)

Background: The controversy about these FISA applications first arose in February when House intelligence committee Chairman Rep. Devin Nunes (R) released a memo claiming that the FBI misled the FISA Court about Christopher Steele, the former British secret agent who compiled the “dossier” on Trump-Russia ties and who was a source of information in the FISA applications on Page. The main complaint in the Nunes memo was that FBI whitewashed Steele—that the FISA applications did not “disclose or reference the role of the DNC, Clinton campaign, or any party/campaign in funding Steele’s efforts, even though the political origins of the Steele dossier were then known to senior and FBI officials.” Nunes later admitted that he had never read the FISA applications himself.

What’s Happening Now: The government’s Saturday release included redacted copies of the initial warrant application from October 2016 and three 90-day extensions of the warrant that were approved by judges under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. They clearly disprove the February Nunes’ memo and support the Democrats counter memo released shortly after Nunes’ release. The Saturday disclosures show that the FBI was developing evidence from its surveillance of Carter Page. The redactions are likely to protect valuable sources and methods — calling for their release is irresponsible and unpatriotic.

Fact: FISA warrants require judicial review every 90 days. This warrant was renewed three times by a panel of four judges appointed by Republican presidents (Reagan, Bush I and Bush II). The length of the warrant applications increased each time as the Justice Department revealed to these judges the information the FBI was getting as a result of the warrant.

Fact: The Nunes memo accused the FBI of dishonesty in failing to disclose information about Christopher Steele — one of the sources named in the warrant, but the Nunes memo itself was dishonest in failing to disclose what the Justice Department disclosed to the FISA court. With the Saturday disclosures, the Nunes memo looks even worse in its mischaracterization of the FBI/Justice Department applications. (Read more in the sources cited below.)

Fact: Trump and other Republicans outcry about the redactions in Saturday’s release is part of their continuing attempt at a coverup.

The Bigger Picture: There is an intense effort to turn standard law enforcement practices into scandalous controversies for the purpose of undermining the Russia espionage investigations.

Further reading:

What to Make of the Carter Page FISA Applications, Lawfare.

With the release of new documents, Devin Nunes’s memo on Carter Page has gotten even less credible, Washington Post

How a Trump Decision Revealed a G.O.P. Memo’s Shaky Foundation, New York Times

The Daily 202: Carter Page FISA warrants underscore the difficulty of disproving presidential falsehoods, Washington Post

I’m a feminist. I don’t want Al Franken to resign. Yet.

Kudos to Kate Harding for her Op-Ed in the Washington Post today.  Having been the senior woman at a large law firm for 15 years (thankfully, there were one or two more senior during my first 5 there), I got stuck on the firm’s original Sexual Harassment Committee. That service was not pretty. And, of course, #MeToo. But, I’m also outraged and afraid about other things in these troubled times.

Harding’s article pretty much captures my take on how we should move forward. I recommend you read the entire article, but I’m excerpting the parts that felt most salient to me. The parentheticals to the author’s text are what I would have said were I writing it:

“If you understand what it means to be a Democrat today — that is, why it makes sense to vote blue over red in this highly polarized political environment — you can understand why it might not make the most sense to demand Franken’s resignation, effective immediately.

“I am a Democrat [in part] because I am a feminist who lives under a two-party system, where one party consistently votes against the interests of women while the other sometimes does not…. I am a realist who recognizes that we get two viable choices, and Democrats are members of the only party positioned to pump the brakes on Republicans’ gleeful race toward Atwoodian dystopia. [And, of course, oligarchy, white supremacy, and the Christian version of an Islamic State.] Meanwhile, I recognize that men’s harassment of and violence against women is a systemic issue, not a Democrat or Republican problem….Its roots lie in a patriarchal culture that trains men to believe they are entitled to control women’s bodies —for sex, for sport, for childbearing, for comedy.

“When you combine these things — an awareness that the Democratic Party is no more or less than best of two, and an understanding that men in power frequently exploit women — it becomes difficult to believe that Franken is the only sitting Democrat with a history of harassment, abuse or assault.

“Sexual harassment and assault are simply too widespread for Democrats to respond to Franken’s offense with only Franken [or some other predator Democrats from the past] in mind: We need to respond in a way that helps us develop a protocol for meaningful change.

“It would feel good, momentarily, to see Franken resign and the Democratic governor of Minnesota, Mark Dayton, appoint a senator who has not (as far as we know) harmed women. If I believed for one second that Franken is the only Democrat in the Senate who has done something like this, I would see that as the best and most appropriate option. But in the world we actually live in, I’m betting that there will be more. And more after that. And they won’t all come from states with Democratic governors and a deep bench of progressive replacements. Some will, if ousted, have their successors chosen by Republicans.

“In other words, if we set this precedent in the interest of demonstrating our party’s solidarity with harassed and abused women, we’re only going to drain the swamp of people who, however flawed, still regularly vote to protect women’s rights and freedoms. The legislative branch will remain chockablock with old, white Republican men who regard women chiefly as sex objects and unpaid housekeepers, and we’ll show them how staunchly Democrats oppose their misogynistic attitudes by handing them more power.

“‘Isn’t that hypocritical?’ I hear you asking, ‘Because Republicans won’t do the right thing, we shouldn’t, either?’ But if the short-term ‘right thing’ leads to long-term political catastrophe for American women, I think we need to reconsider our definition of the ‘right thing.’ I am in no way suggesting that we decline to hold Franken accountable for his offenses — only that we think in terms of consequences that might actually improve women’s lives going forward.

“But in a sharply divided political climate where toxic masculinity knows no party, yet is only ever acknowledged by one, we must think about how to minimize harm to women. One more empty apology and resignation, one more head on a pike, will not make American women safer or better off. Powerful men lifting up women’s concerns and supporting progressive women candidates, however, could be a real step toward changing the culture that makes victims of so many of us.”

Harding goes on to lay out a plan — a sort of plea to Senator Franken. I hope he takes her up on it.

Source: Perspective | I’m a feminist. I study rape culture. And I don’t want Al Franken to resign.

Update:

It’s worth noting another thoughtful piece, this from Michele Goldberg in The New York Times on November 20. Goldberg takes a much more “on the one hand, then the other” approach. I excerpt only the one hand that I agree with:

“Feminists, enraged and traumatized by Donald Trump’s election, know they can’t expect accountability from Republicans, but they’ve forced it from people who claim to share their ideals. As a result, it sometimes feels as if liberal institutions are devouring themselves over sex while conservatives, unburdened by the pretense of caring about gender equality, blithely continue their misrule.

“It’s possible that feminists, in trying to hold Democrats to standards that they
wish were universal, risk unilateral disarmament.

“It’s a strange political fiction that anyone can really separate partisanship from principle. In general, the character of the party that controls the government has a much greater impact on people’s lives than the character of individual representatives. Those who care about women’s rights shouldn’t be expected to prove it by being willing to hand power to people devoted to taking those rights away.”

It’s pretty clear that Republicans are not separating partisanship from principle:  A new Quinnipiac University poll suggests that sexual harassment is less of a dealbreaker for the party’s grassroots in the Trump era than it was before.

  • By a 63 percent to 29 percent margin, GOP voters say they would oppose trying to remove Trump from office even if the multiple sexual harassment allegations against him were proven true.
  • Half of Republican voters nationally believe GOP senators should let Roy Moore serve in the Senate if he is elected next month.
  • 43 percent of Republicans say they would “still consider voting” for a candidate who faced multiple sexual harassment allegations, so long as they agreed with them on the issues.
  • In contrast, 81 percent of Democrats said they would definitely not vote for such a candidate, as did 61 percent of independent voters. Perhaps we should cautiously assess the wisdom of that 81% in light of the earlier bullet points.

Oct 30 revelations

Earlier this month, Mueller filed a charge against George Papadopoulos, foreign policy advisor to the Trump campaign. Papadopoulos pled guilty. Read it here:

Papadopoulos statement_of_the_offense.filed_

Today, the indictment against Manafort and his associate Gates was unveiled. Read it here:

manafort-gates_indictment_filed_and_redacted

So, here’s what’s happening. (I think.)
 
Papadopoulos was arrested in July and pled guilty to the charge of lying to the FBI in early October. Based on the allegations in the Charge, he could have been hit with charges of much bigger crimes. So, he must have cut a deal to testify against others. LIke the three Trump campaign officials named in the Charge, one of whom is probably Manafort.
 
The Indictment of Manafort is all about tax fraud and lobbying disclosure violations – predating his role in the campaign. These are big crimes that could get him years in prison and Mueller hoped that threatening him with these charges would get him to testify against others in the campaign. So far, Manafort may be keeping his mouth shut hoping for a pardon. But I’m sure the prosecutors are dangling a jail time reduction in front of him in exchange for testimony. Eventually, he’ll be part of a bigger indictment based on the stuff revealed in the Papadopoulos Charge.
 
So, when Trump tweets “no collusion” and says this stuff happened years ago, he’s ignoring the Papadopoulos Charge and focusing only on the Manafort indictment (which does continue into 2017, incidentally, so he’s mischaracterizing it as well).
 
And Flynn is still in the background — cooperating or not?
 
This stuff is complicated. Stay tuned.

Non-Violent Extremism

I am reading a fine book called This Is An Uprising: How Non-violent Revolt is Shaping the 21st Century, by Mark Engler and Paul Engler. Mark Engler will speak in Flagstaff next week. Reading the book reminded me of a Facebook Note that I had written on Martin Luther King Day in 2011 — before I was using this blog. Here’s what I said then:

“When one lives through history, perhaps you tend to be less curious about it. Or I least I have been. Also, there really isn’t historical perspective for at least some decades after events. At least in the first 20 years or so, I’d class whatever we say about current events as political commentary.We’ve now reached the point where there is some good historical perspective on Martin Luther King.

In recent years, there have probably been several good books about Martin Luther King’s life. The one that most grabbed me was: To the Mountaintop: Martin Luther King Jr.’s Sacred Mission to Save America 1955-1968. The book reveals that King’s inspiration for embracing the “extremism” label his critics had given him was a woman, Lillian Smith, who bemoaned moderation as “the slogan of our times,” and a dangerous myth that was no longer affordable in the conditions of fifty years ago. (Mountaintop, p. 183.)  I think that is true again, where the slogan of our times has become “civil discourse.” Civility by those who are right cannot prevent injustice and immorality by those who are wrong. Non-violent extremism must be embraced to save our country.”

At the time, in 2011, I was thinking primarily of the drive for equal marriage rights. That battle seems to have been won. Nonetheless, the thoughts apply today. This Is An Uprising quotes briefly from Dr. King’s Letter from the Birmingham Jail. This letter, one of his most inspiring pieces, was  written in 1963 in response to local ministers, so-called liberals who complained his appearance in their community was “unwise and untimely.” Here’s some of what King wrote:

“I feel that you are men of genuine good will and that your criticisms are sincerely set forth, I want to try to answer your statements in what I hope will be patient and reasonable terms….I, along with several members of my staff, am here because I was invited here I am here because I have organizational ties here. …But more basically, I am in Birmingham because injustice is here.

“Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly. Never again can we afford to live with the narrow, provincial “outside agitator” idea. Anyone who lives inside the United States can never be considered an outsider anywhere within its bounds.

“You deplore the demonstrations taking place in Birmingham. But your statement, I am sorry to say, fails to express a similar concern for the conditions that brought about the demonstrations. I am sure that none of you would want to rest content with the superficial kind of social analysis that deals merely with effects and does not grapple with underlying causes.

“You may well ask: “Why direct action? Why sit-ins, marches and so forth? Isn’t negotiation a better path?” You are quite right in calling, for negotiation. Indeed, this is the very purpose of direct action. Nonviolent direct action seeks to create such a crisis and foster such a tension that a community which has constantly refused to negotiate is forced to confront the issue. It seeks to so dramatize the issue that it can no longer be ignored. My citing the creation of tension as part of the work of the nonviolent-resister may sound rather shocking. But I must confess that I am not afraid of the word “tension.” I have earnestly opposed violent tension, but there is a type of constructive, nonviolent tension which is necessary for growth. Just as Socrates felt that it was necessary to create a tension in the mind so that individuals could rise from the bondage of myths and half-truths to the unfettered realm of creative analysis and objective appraisal, we must we see the need for nonviolent gadflies to create the kind of tension in society that will help men rise….

“Frankly, I have yet to engage in a direct-action campaign that was “well timed” in the view of those who have not suffered unduly from the disease of segregation. For years now I have heard the word “Wait!” It rings in the ear of every Negro with piercing familiarity. This “Wait” has almost always meant “Never.” We must come to see, with one of our distinguished jurists, that “justice too long delayed is justice denied.”

“But when you have seen vicious mobs lynch your mothers and fathers at will and drown your sisters and brothers at whim; when you have seen hate-filled policemen curse, kick and even kill your black brothers and sisters; when you see the vast majority of your twenty million Negro brothers smothering in an airtight cage of poverty in the midst of an affluent society; when you suddenly find your tongue twisted and your speech stammering as you seek to explain to your six-year-old daughter why she can’t go to the public amusement park that has just been advertised on television, and see tears welling up in her eyes when she is told that Funtown is closed to colored children, and see ominous clouds of inferiority beginning to form in her little mental sky, and see her beginning to distort her personality by developing an unconscious bitterness toward white people; when you have to concoct an answer for a five-year-old son who is asking: “Daddy, why do white people treat colored people so mean?”….. Then you will understand why we find it difficult to wait. There comes a time when the cup of endurance runs over, and men are no longer willing to be plunged into the abyss of despair. I hope, sirs, you can understand our legitimate and unavoidable impatience.

“I must make two honest confessions to you….First, I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro’s great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen’s Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to “order” than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: “I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action”; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man’s freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a “more convenient season.” Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.

“…we who engage in nonviolent direct action are not the creators of tension. We merely bring to the surface the hidden tension that is already alive. We bring it out in the open, where it can be seen and dealt with. Like a boil that can never be cured so long as it is covered up but must be opened with an its ugliness to the natural medicines of air and light, injustice must be exposed, with all the tension its exposure creates, to the light of human conscience and the air of national opinion before it can be cured….

“….We will have to repent in this generation not merely for the hateful words and actions of the bad people but for the appalling silence of the good people. Human progress never rolls in on wheels of inevitability; it comes through the tireless efforts of men willing to be co-workers with God, and without this ‘hard work, time itself becomes an ally of the forces of social stagnation. We must use time creatively, in the knowledge that the time is always ripe to do right.

“But though I was initially disappointed at being categorized as an extremist, as I continued to think about the matter I gradually gained a measure of satisfaction from the label….So the question is not whether we will be extremists, but what kind of extremists we will be. Will we be extremists for hate or for love? Will we be extremists for the preservation of injustice or for the extension of justice?”

You can read King’s Letter from the Birmingham Jail, written in 1963, in its entirety here: http://abacus.bates.edu/admin/offices/dos/mlk/letter.html